The global stock market rally seem capped as coronavirus cases reaccelerate for a third week and economic uncertainty as several countries reinstate stricter restrictions. S&P futures are struggling to recapture pre-pandemic levels as the pace of the recovery seems like it will be much slower. Everyone loves the Nasdaq, mega-cap tech stocks are still the hottest trade this summer. Strong improvement with market breadth has supported the S&P 500 index and small-cap stock market indexes but everyone still wants to be overweight tech.
The DAX was also down sharply after disappointing German industrial data fostered doubts of the economic recovery in Europe.
Oil prices have completely shrugged off the softer-than-expected German industrial production data that suggested the European economic rebound might be struggling. Crude prices seem stuck just above the $40 level as tighter supplies continue to counter growing concerns oil demand will struggle as much of the world reinstates lockdown measures. It is hard to be bullish crude when parts of Australia are reinstating lockdowns for six weeks, many US states are reversing reopening efforts and LATAM is reeling from the coronavirus.
New virus hotspots across the globe is telling OPEC+ that the global economic recovery will take longer and that the pickup in crude demand will be slower. If energy traders continue to see headlines that suggest COVID-19 lockdown measures will be reinstated, that should translate into better-than-expected OPEC+ production cut compliance and it could help the argument for extending production cuts into August.
Crude was also supported after Libya’s state-run NOC estimated that their current output could half next year.
Gold is back above the $1800 level on economic jitters, stricter quarantines, and stimulus hopes. The latest part of the stock market rally seems to be over and gold should shine over the next several trading sessions. Demand for safe-havens was strong once US traders processed all the morning’s headlines that included downbeat German data Gold seems poised to keep the rally if the virus concern.
Bitcoin trading has lost some enthusiasm as investors focus primarily on gold and equities. Bitcoin seems trapped around the low-$9000 level and that is very disappointing for cryptocurrency traders. Bitcoin traders are growing nervous as appetite has been recently strong for risky assets, but the largest cryptocurrency has under-performed.
Atcoins are starting to make some progress too. Ether and Cardano have been gaining new investors.