COVID 19 threat is real.
Key Economic Events
The risks to outlook have grown and the Fed may be ready to do more. After an unexpected rise in jobless claims and as US coronavirus cases continue to spread across the Sunbelt, concerns are growing that the economic recovery is stalling. The Fed may signal their emergency programs are not going away anytime soon and announce a new maturity composition of Treasury purchases. Interest rates will remain near zero for a few years and the Fed may need to signal their actions will also keep long-term yields grounded.
Congress attempts to deliver another COVID-19 relief bill. Republicans have been slow to announce their proposal and that could prove costly as the $600-a-week federal aid expires in less than a week. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will release his plan on Monday.
Democrats are eagerly awaiting former-VP Biden’s decision on his running mate. Prior to COVID-19, the Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled in July, meaning we should have found out his decision by June. Since the convention was delayed till August 17th, he will have more time to evaluate his candidates. Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters.
EU passes pandemic recovery package. Euro and European stocks set to outperform this week. Euro is also receiving haven flows as confidence in US Dollar ebbs. Slow event and week ahead of summer holidays. German IFO the highlight.
EU Michael Barnier saying the Brexit agreement looks remote. Appears to be capping GBP/USD below 1.2700 even as the Dollar weakens. Expected to weaken vs Euro. UK strong anti-China stance is increasing the risk of China economic retaliation. UK negative.
No data of note.
Russian ruble stabilizes as oil prices edge higher. No significant data.
Covid-19 cases continue spiking, casting a cloud over the economic outlook. Curbs on alcohol sales and lockdowns reinstated. General EM rally sees ZAR at high end of the two-month range, but further gains are challenging.
China Industrial Profits on Monday, and PMI’s on Friday bookend the week. Large divergence from market forecasts will be market moving.
All attention on worsening relations with the US. Tit for tat consulate closures and escalating rhetoric. China equities are wobbling. Unlikely to see rhetoric spilling over into outright trade war at this stage. Headline driven market.
Australian Dollar breaks range and rallies, looks set for more gains this week, geopolitics aside.
China relations continue to deteriorate a major risk factor. Announced an 185 billion budget deficit for next year, but ratings agencies affirmed AAA credit rating. Australian markets positive. Data shows recovery on course despite Victoria lockdown.
Australian Inflation Wednesday expected to fall. Will spur more easing calls, stocks positive.
USD/JPY range trading. Equity markets holding near highs. Japan retail sales expected to fall again on Thursday.
Covid-19 cases are spiking higher in Tokyo but the government is refusing to declare an emergency, causing disquiet amongst domestic investors.
After a two-day holiday USD/JPY to remain range bound this week. Eyes are elsewhere.
Commodity / crypto Markets
Crude prices are rising after impressive European PMI data suggests crude demand should improve as the region moves back into expansion territory. Oil is also getting a boost as supply disruptions seem likely as the Atlantic hurricane season heats up. Tropical Storm Hanna is strengthening off Texas and tropical storm Gonzalo is brewing in the Caribbean.
WTI crude’s tight range is likely ending now as the latest move in Treasuries could spark a broader move across all asset classes. The risks seem to be growing to the downside for crude and any rallies that do not stem from any major production outages could be short-lived.
Gold still has its eyes set on record highs as central banks will accept the call for more action. Gold prices are taking a breather following impressive European PMIs and as investors focus on the upcoming Fed policy meeting this week. The Fed could be the catalysts this week to help gold clear the $1900/oz level. If policymakers unveil plans to deliver longer-run support to the economy as growth stalls.
Geopolitical tensions continue to percolate and that is also providing another layer of support for higher gold prices. Relations between the world’s two largest economies won’t head towards a messy divorce, but they can get a lot worse from here.
Gold volatility will remain high as it seems a major correction could be in the cards once it reaches record high territory.
Bitcoin got a boost after the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) noted that national banks have authority to provide fiat bank accounts and cryptocurrency custodial services to cryptocurrency custodial services. Bitcoin’s progress into the banking system is gaining steam and this should be positive for the entire crypto space.